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mardi 4 août 2009

Informations utiles sur la saison cycloniques

Tuesday, August 4, 2009 10:56AM PDT - Below Average

So far we haven't had any tropical storms, but don't let your guard down! In 2004 for example we didn't see the first storm until July 31, but that was the same year we had Ivan which devastated Grand Cayman and Frances, a category 4 storm that went over the Turks&Caicos and Bahamas. Or for example back in 1992, when we didn't have the first storm until August 14, which was Andrew that caused havoc in Florida.

Also the research team at Colorado State just issued a new forecast, and is calling for 10 tropical storms this season. However, at least the lowered their forecast a bit from their June forecast. I especially liked the following quote in their paper: "We believe that the neutral tropical Atlantic combined with a weak/moderate El Nino event will likely lead to a fairly quiet hurricane season." The new numbers are 10 tropical storms, of which 4 hurricanes, of these 2 will be 'big ones'. Normal is 9.6, 5.9 and 2.3, resp. So a bit below average.

They expect one major hurricane to make landfall in the Caribbean. On the United States Landfalling Hurricane Probability Project -webpage there is a link to a Landfall Probability Table, high on this list are: the Bahamas, Mexico and Cuba... Read the full forecast or just the press release. Be prepared, please. -Gert

Gabriel Archange Leon
Cap-Haitien, +509 3721 066

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